Qhov Tseeb Huab Cua - Xav Tau Kev Huab Cua ntawm Photovoltaic Polysilicon Thiab Modules

1. 1-6 hli polysilicon mov thiab thov kev kwv yees

Thaum Lub Rau Hli 2022, kuv lub teb chaws polysilicon ntau lawm tau mus txog cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm 62,000 tons;txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, cov khoom siv polysilicon tau pom muaj kev nce zuj zus tuaj.Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog East Hope hluav taws kub nyhiab thiab kev kho dua ntawm qee cov kab ntau lawm nyob rau lub Rau Hli, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm polysilicon ntau lawm qeeb hauv Lub Rau Hli.

Raws li daim ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab tshaj plaws ntawm Silicon Kev Lag Luam Tuam Txhab, cov khoom siv polysilicon hauv tsev yuav tsum nce 120,000 tons hauv ib nrab xyoo 2022 piv nrog rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Nyob rau hauv Q3, vim qhov cuam tshuam ntawm qhov kub thiab txias, qhov nce me me, thiab qhov kev nce ntxiv tseem ceeb tshwm sim hauv lub quarter thib plaub, thaum cov khoom tsim tawm hauv lub quarter thib plaub Kev lag luam xav tau kev koom tes hauv 2022 kuj me me.

Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, cov khoom tsim tawm hauv tsev yog kwv yees li 340,000 tons, thiab tag nrho cov khoom siv yog kwv yees li 400,000 tons.Ntawm lawv, txawm hais tias kev tsim khoom hauv tsev tseem nce ntxiv nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli, cov khoom siv polysilicon tuaj yeem cuam tshuam loj heev los ntawm kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev tsov kev rog txawv teb chaws (Lavxias teb sab-Ukrainian teeb meem), ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntawm polysilicon., kev nce ntxiv hauv lub Tsib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli yog yuav luag ob npaug ntawm qhov kev nce qib dhau los hauv Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Plaub Hlis.

Nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nws xav tias qhov kev thov rau polysilicon nyob rau hauv kuv lub teb chaws yuav ncav cuag 550,000 tons, nce 34% nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab cov kev thov txhua xyoo yuav ncav cuag 950,000 tons.Txawm li cas los xij, txhua xyoo cov khoom siv polysilicon hauv tsev tsuas yog 800,000 tons, cov khoom ntim yog li 100,000 tons, thiab tag nrho cov khoom siv yog 900,000 tons.Yog tias lub sijhawm txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021 txog Lub Kaum Hli 2022 yog siv los ua lub voj voog khoom ntawm polysilicon rau lub peev xwm nruab rau xyoo 2022, cov khoom siv tau zoo rau tag nrho lub xyoo yog txog 800,000 tons.

2. Polysilicon profitability nce ntau zaus

Kev xa khoom thiab kev thov ntawm polysilicon hauv 2022 yuav nyob twj ywm hauv cov khoom tsis txaus, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm polysilicon yuav tsum ncav cuag ntau dua 270 yuan / kg, uas yog ntau dua li tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm polysilicon xyoo 2021.

Kev lag luam silicon thiab cov nqi silicone tau pib nqis los hauv ob lub lis piam dhau los, yog li tus nqi ntawm polysilicon yuav tsis nce ntxiv, thiab cov nyiaj tau los yuav zoo dua.Ob lub ntim thiab tus nqi tau nce, thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab polysilicon xyoo no yuav yog 3-5 npaug ntawm xyoo tas los.

3. Txhua xyoo PV tshiab thiab module muab

Cov khoom siv ntawm 800,000 tons ntawm polysilicon sib haum rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ntawm 310-320 GW.Tom qab txiav tawm cov khoom ruaj ntseg hauv txhua qhov txuas ntawm cov saw hlau, cov qauv uas tuaj yeem muab tau rau hauv lub davhlau ya nyob twg yuav nyob hauv 300GW, sib xws rau 250GW ntawm lub ntiaj teb tshiab photovoltaic nruab muaj peev xwm.

Txij li thaum lub ntiaj teb no polysilicon mov nyob rau hauv 2021 tseem muaj ib qho nyiaj seem piv rau ib xyoos ib zaug 190GW module xa khoom, qhov nyiaj seem no yuav hloov mus rau hauv kev ruaj ntseg stocks coj los ntawm kev nthuav dav ntawm wafers, hlwb, thiab modules nyob rau hauv 2022, yog li 250GW nce PV ntsia muaj peev xwm yuav. ua ib qho kev kwv yees nruab nrab rau xyoo 2022. Yog tias txhua qhov txuas tuaj yeem txhim kho kev tswj cov khoom muag, txo cov khoom ruaj ntseg, thiab cov khoom siv polysilicon tuaj yeem txhim kho ntxiv, ces cov khoom siv polysilicon txhua xyoo yuav tsum nce ntxiv, thiab cov khoom xa tuaj sib txuas yuav tsum ncav cuag ntau dua. tshaj 320 GW.Qhov kev cia siab zoo ntawm kev teeb tsa muaj peev xwm tseem nyob ib puag ncig 270GW.